NFL Field Goal Kicking in the 21st Century: A Data Analysis

Introduction:

When Cameron (Cam) Little successfully kicked a 68-yard field goal for the Jacksonville Jaguars on November 2nd, 2025, he broke the National Football League (NFL) record for the longest made field goal. Little’s record raised a few eyebrows among the league, but it wasn’t entirely shocking either.  Little had also technically already made a 70 yard field goal earlier that year in a pre-season game, which unfortunately did not count toward the record books. With the 68 yarder, however, Little had set a new field goal distance record, the 5th time in the 21st century that a placekicker had equaled or eclipsed the prior record. 

For myself, a long-time NFL fan, fantasy sports player, and data analyst, it immediately prompted me to ask a few questions. Was Little’s record an outlier, more of an isolated anomaly or was it something that existed within a larger overall trend? It certainly felt on an anecdotal level that NFL kickers for years had been kicking longer and longer field goals, more often and more successfully, but I didn’t have any definitive data to demonstrate that. 

As part of a Google Data Analytics certification I was pursuing on Coursera, I was required to complete a final Capstone Project. I decided I would satisfy my own curiosity and chose NFL Field Goal Kicking Performance in the 21st Century as the topic of my capstone. I used the APPASA framework that organized my certification coursework to guide my data analysis. This blog post details my overall process in the data analysis, including my overall findings and the data visualizations I created. 

Stage 1: Ask

The first stage in the APPASA framework is the Ask stage. 

Here, stakeholders present to a data analyst a key business or organizational task, usually in the form of a question or several questions. For this particular data analysis the questions I sought to answer included:

• Are NFL field goal kickers improving their overall accuracy on field goals, particularly at longer distances?
• If NFL kickers are indeed improving their long-distance kick success rates, how has that impacted attempt rates by NFL teams? 
• Based on historical data trends, when might NFL executives, coaches, and fans expect a 70 yard field goal to be made within a regular season game?

I had my own gut instincts regarding the answers to these questions, but I committed myself to finding and analyzing actual data to do so. 

Stage 2: Prepare

The second stage in the APPASA framework is the Prepare stage. 

Here, the data analyst(s) identify and collect useful data set(s) that are relevant to the problem at hand, as well as determine how the data is organized, managed and stored. Metrics that will successfully answer the key stakeholder questions are also identified. 

For this data analysis, I used a publicly available dataset maintained and published by the NFL itself on the NFL.com website. There is accurate, well-vetted field goal kicking data for every NFL kicker who has attempted at least a single field goal during a regular season game since 1970. I focused on data from the 2001-2025 NFL seasons, representing 25 full years of data for the 21st century to date. That publicly available data can be found here: https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/field-goals/2025/reg/all/kickingfgmade/desc

Stage 3: Process

The third stage in the APPASA framework is Process. 

Here, the data analyst(s) review the overall organization and layout of the dataset(s) and work to clean it, in order to make sure the data is complete, accurate, and useful for the analysis stages, ensuring the credibility of the analysis and its findings.

For this data set, the data is 2nd Party data and has been very well-vetted and maintained by the NFL itself. It’s built and compiled from the official box scores of each and every NFL game played since 1970. I manually “scraped” every year of data from 2001-2025 and moved that data over to a Google Sheets spreadsheet. 

This data set required very little data cleaning, except for a few minor column labeling issues that were identified during this Process stage. Basically, the order of the column labels for Field Goals Attempted and Made at different distances were inverted. Since Field Goals Made can never be larger in quantity than Field Goals Attempted, it was clear the column labels were being presented in reverse order, a simple enough fix. Once I re-labeled and reformatted some column headings, the data set was fully cleaned and processed, now ready for the overall analysis.

Stage 4: Analysis

The fourth stage in the APPASA framework is Analysis. 

This is where the bulk of the work is done, the meat and potatoes of the Capstone Project. My cleaned and reformatted dataset contained just over 1,000 rows of data for “kicker seasons”: a full year of data for the different field goal attempts and made field goals by that kicker, during that season, over 6 discreet distance ranges:

• 0-19 yards
• 20-29 yards
• 30-39 yards
• 40-49 yards
• 50-59 yards
• 60+ yards.

For each of the 6 distance ranges, I manually calculated a Field Goal Success Rate by dividing the total Attempts made at that distance range by the total Made field goals at that distance range. This was a useful first step in answering the key questions identified in the Ask stage, but the data itself was still a bit too granular and noisy, particular at longer distance ranges. 

Some kickers, for example, had never even attempted a 60 yard field goal, nevermind made one. A small handful of kickers, however, had already made multiple 60 yard kicks in their careers. Some kickers kick for teams with indoor stadiums and others with outdoors. Some kicks are made at sea-level, while others are made at higher elevations, like Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado. 

To better understand the data trends across the league as a whole, I knew I had to aggregate the performance data of each individual kicker into a similarly formatted dataset for ALL kickers for the last 25 years. I used COUNTIF and SUMIF functions in a new tab of my spreadsheet to aggregate performance from over 1,000 individual “kicker seasons” into just 25 rows of annual performance data covering the 2001-2025 NFL Seasons. 

From here, I could start to find some of the answers to my initial questions. I created some initial data visualizations within my spreadsheet, but I also moved this Annual Aggregated Data to an R Programming environment within Posit Cloud to create a bit more customized data visualizations that I could also share as part of my project. 

Stage 5: Share

The fifth stage in the APPSA framework is the Share stage.

In this stage, the data analyst begins to share the primary findings of the Analysis stage to stakeholders, within audience-friendly Presentations. For this Capstone, I first wrote out my full process and findings as a blog post that I published to my personal website. I distilled down the blog post into a more visually appealing Google Slides presentation deck, which I also published to my website. Finally, I converted the slide deck into a video (with audio) based version that I uploaded to YouTube and also published to my website. The blog post, slide deck and YouTube video all share the same findings from the analysis in a few different file formats for my audiences. 

Let’s dig into what I found!

Primary Findings:

Let’s take a look at first overall field goal kicking performance across all distances, and then take individual looks into performance trends at each of the discrete distance ranges.

All Field Goal Distances Performance Trends:

The combination column and line graph above shows the total # of field goal attempts made by NFL teams over the last 25 years (blue bars, left hand axis), as well as the overall success rate of those kicks (red line, right hand axis). 

One immediate takeaway from this is that NFL has been pretty consistent in the overall number of field goal attempts over the last 25 years. In any given season, NFL teams will generally combine to attempt no fewer than 900 field goals and no more than 1,100. The recent uptick in the last 4 years have come from the addition of a 17th game to the schedule. On a per game basis, NFL teams were combining for 3.7 kick attempts per game in 2001 and in 2025 that figure was just over 4 kicks per game. 

The overall success rate has slowly and steadily improved, as indicated by the lighter red trendline that appears alongside the darker red line for yearly success rates. In the first few years of the 21st century, NFL teams were averaging between 76% to 79%, just below the 80% threshold. Over the last 5 years, the league wide success rate is now up to 84% to 86%.

0-19 Yard Field Goal Performance Trends:

The graph above is the same type of column and line graph, but it shows just the performance of very short field goal attempts, those under 20 yards in distance. 

NFL teams don’t really really attempt many field goals this short in distance. From 2001 through 2012, across the entire league there were usually 10 to 15 such attempts a year, sometimes a little less or little more. Starting around 2013, the league-wide tendency was to take even fewer attempts at this distance. This is around when advanced analytics became more popular across the league and the game theory suggested that attempting 4th down conversions within the red zone was more advantageous than field goal attempts. The last time there were more than 5 such attempts was 2020. Overall, the success rate for kicks at this short distance has been 100% since 2003. 

20-29 Yard Field Goal Performance Trends:

The graph above shows the same type of data (attempts vs success rates), but now for the slightly longer range of 20-29 yard field goals. 

Just like with the 0-19 yard field goal range, NFL teams started taking fewer attempts at this distance around 2012, due to analytics and game theory modeling. While the league totaled between 250 to 300 attempts from 2001 to 2011, total attempts at this distance have been in the 200-250 range since 2012. 

The overall success rate for kicks at this distance range has been strong and steadily improving. In the first few years of this century, the success rate was 94% to 96% and it’s improved to the 97% to 99% range in the last 5 years. For professional field goal kickers, kicks under 30 yards are today about as much a guarantee as you can expect. Missed kicks at this distance range are true outliers.

30-39 Yard Field Goal Performance Trends:

The graph above shows the data for 30-39 yard field goat attempts and success rate. At this distance range, NFL teams haven’t shown the same shift and drop in attempts. There’s never been fewer than 258 such attempts in a year and no more than 321. Generally speaking, NFL teams will attempt 250-300 of these mid-range field goals. 

The success rate for kicks at this distance range have also slowly and steadily improved. In the first few years of the 21st century the success rate was in the 81% to 85% range. Over the last 5 years, it’s been in the 92% to 95% range. Kicks at this distance range are not quite the near guarantee that kicks under 30 yards are, but they’re still quite likely to convert into points. 

40-49 Yard Field Goal Performance Trends:

The graph above shows the attempts and success rate for kicks in the 40-49 yard range. NFL teams attempt roughly the same number of kicks at this distance as they do with 30-39 yard attempts. Since 2001, there has been no fewer than 255 such attempts and no more than 338. Over the last 5-10 years, the league averages right around 300 kicks at this distance. 

Like the shorter distance ranges, the success rate for kicks at this mid-distance range have steadily improved across the league. In the first few years of the century, the success rate was in the 60% to 70% range. Over the last 5 years, it’s now in the upper 70% to lower 80% range. 

Kicks at this distance range are still more likely than not to convert into points, but they’re not quite the guarantees as shorter kicks. About one in five kicks at this range are still expected to miss, a consideration that impacts coaching decisions during games. Depending on down and distance, field location, and the game score, NFL coaches may opt for going for 4th down conversions instead of field goal attempts at this distance range.

50-59 Yard Field Goal Performance Trends:

The graph above shows the attempts and success rate for 50-59 yard field goal attempts. The data makes it clear that kicks at this range now become what are considered “long distance” attempts. 

In the first few years of the 21st century, NFL teams combined for just 70-85 such kicks and didn’t attempt over 100 such kicks until 2009. Starting around 2012, the number of kicks at this distance slowly and steadily increased to between 130-170 attempts a year. In the last few years, NFL teams have greatly increased their tolerance for attempts at this range, with 210-220 kicks in 2022-2023 and 240-260+ kicks in the last 2 years. While the total number of attempts at this distance lags behind attempts at the 30-39 yard and 40-49 yard ranges, the differences are shrinking quickly. 

The overall success rate has steadily improved over the last 25 years. In the first few years of the century, the success rate was just over 50%, in the low to mid 50% range. These were effectively coin-flips in terms of converting them to points. Over the last 5 years, the success rate has grown to the 67% to 72% range, with an increased likelihood of converting attempts into points.

60+ Yard Field Goal Performance Trends:

Finally, we get to the very longest kicks, those that are 60 or more yards long in distance. The graph above shows the attempts and success rate for these very long-distance kicks. 

For the first few years of the 21st century, NFL teams did not regularly attempt such long kicks. There were just 2-3 attempts on average for the first few years of the century and the league didn’t attempt at least 5 such kicks until 2010. The first year where the league attempted at least 10 such kicks was as recently as 2020! In the last 5 years, however, we can see a noted surge in the number of such attempts, with 15 and then 22 such attempts in 2024 and 2025.

The overall success rate for these kicks is a bit “noisy”, but overall is trending up. Almost all of these kicks failed to convert to points in the very earliest years of the 21st century. The first year where the success rate was higher than 50% was 2006. Since then, the success rate fluctuates quite a bit, a consequence of the much smaller sample size. 

Still, in the last 5 years, as attempts at this very long distance range have increased, the success rate has been between 27% and 55%, with 3 years above a 38% rate and 2 years above a 50% rate. Kicks at this distance are slowly and steadily becoming the new “coin-flip”, and given league-wide trends, we might expect rates to consistently remain at or above the 50% mark in the very near future.

Primary Conclusions:

Circling back to the initial questions posed during the Ask stage, we have now learned:

• At every discrete distance range and overall, NFL kickers have improved their success rate in field goal kicking. At the shorter distances, success rates are well above 90% and at the very longest distances, now 60+ yards, the success rate is nearing 50%.
  
• Despite the clear improvements by NFL field goal kickers, NFL teams and coaches have not dramatically increased the overall number of field goal attempts per game. Kicks in the middle ranges have remained relatively steady in volume, and the increase in 50+ yard kicks has coincided with reductions in kick attempts under 30 yards. On a per game basis, kick attempts have only grown from 3.7 attempts in 2001 to just over 4 attempts in 2025. In the last section of this analysis, we’ll explore reasons why attempts have not increased as accuracy have improved.
  
• Finally, based on historical data and a basic regression analysis, we might expect a NFL kicker to successfully kick a 70 yard or longer field goal before the year 2050, within the following 25 years. There is greater than a 50% chance this occurs by 2045 and distinct odds above 15% (a dice roll) than this occurs by 2030.

Stage 6: Act

The 6th and final stage of the APPASA framework is Act. 

Here, stakeholders can take action based on the conclusions and insights gleaned from the data analysis. For our purposes, we can explore why NFL coaches have not significantly increased field goal attempts despite improved accuracy at all distances, and offer insights as to when we might see such shifts in coaches’ decision making.

There are a few likely reasons to explain coaches’ reluctance to attempt more field goals, particularly longer ones. First, modern NFL analytics and game theory both place an emphasis on touchdowns, which are worth 6 points, twice as much as a field goal. Depending on down and distance, the remaining time, and the game score, NFL coaches are just as likely to attempt 4th down conversions than field goal attempts (if not more so), particularly around mid-field.  

Secondly, for teams that are behind by 2 or more touchdowns, a field goal attempt is simply not meaningful enough compared to going for it on 4th down and attempting to continue the drive and score touchdowns. Conversely, a team ahead by 2 or more touchdowns is risk-adverse and more likely to punt the ball to use up more game time and take advantage of field position. Only fairly close score games regularly see field goal attempts and the wider the divergence in teams’ scores, the less likely the games will see field goal attempts. 

Thirdly, failed field goal attempts result in a turnover, with the other team gaining possession of the ball at the spot of the missed kick. For the very longest kicks, a missed attempt will turn the ball over to the opponent right in the middle of the field, with a high percentage odds of scoring points on that next possession. This is something many risk-adverse coaches simply aren’t willing to risk. 

For all these reasons, many of the 50+ and nearly all of the 60+ field goal attempts are occurring within the very last moments of the 1st half or the end of regulation time, when a turnover matters far less due to limited remaining time for the opponent.

Still, even in these limited windows of opportunity, we have seen increased attempts from coaches in the league, especially in the last handful of years. With Little’s new record and a new wave of better and stronger kickers across the league, once 60+ attempts can be regularly expected to convert into points more than 50% of the time, we might start to see more opportunities for kickers outside these very specific game script windows. When the 2026 NFL season kicks off in September, we’ll have to see what decisions NFL teams make regarding field goal kicking. 

Attribution/Credits: NFL Field Goal kicking data courtesy of NFL.com